THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA VARYAG TRANSFORMATION

Any amount appreciated	VARYAG TRANSFORMATION INTO AN OPERATIONAL PLAN AIRCRAFT CARRIER	Any amount appreciated

LAST UPDATE: May 1, 2009
Major Development - Varyag moved into dry dock for major work.

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. With the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Macau firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Macau and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency prepares to tow their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that were constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards.

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

Overhead view of the Varyag in June 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem complete structurally...markings and final fitting necessary yet.

A satellite view of the Varyag in early 2008 in Dalian. The deck and the vessels's exterior is looking very fit.

In late Arpil, 2009, the Varyag was moved from the pier in Dalian, to a dry dock about two miles distant.

Another view of the Varyag being moved to dry dock near the Dalian shipyards in late April 2009.

The Vayrag in dry dock in late April, 2009. Speculation and some naval experts are wondering if major propulsion work will be performed there.

The Vayrag with significant equipment on its decks in dry dock in late April, 2009. It appears that some major final outfitting may take place.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians would sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seemed to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery of those two in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two more, new modern, area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Three of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two new PLAN nuclear attack submarines, the Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new large Qiandaohu Class (two vessels) at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

LINKS OF INTEREST

Note: Jeff Head has maintained the Rising Sea Dragon site for years at his cost. Now donations help offset hosting & bandwidth costs for continued operations.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series and his other, non-fiction work, by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

FINE BOOKS AUTHORED BY JEFF HEAD
Dragon's Fury - World War Against America and the West: Following great success in the War on Terror, politicians and analysts alike thought that future global conflict was impossible...but they were wrong. Journey into a possible future where Islamic terrorists sharpen their horrific skills & ally with Red China. In such a future, can the U.S. & western civilization survive?	The Stand at Klamath Falls: How rural western farmers and their supporters stood up to entrenched environmentalism, activist judges, and agencies of the Federal gGovernment in southwestern Oregon...and prevailed.

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